Date
GMT+01:00
Event
Oct, 19 07:00
Trade Balance
Trade Balance
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 07:00
Importance: Low
Previous: 5.06
Forecast: 6.23
Actual: -
Period: Sep

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

Oct, 19 13:30
★★
Building Permits
Building Permits
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1728K; 6.0%
Forecast: 1670K; -1.8%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Oct, 19 13:30
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Housing Starts
Housing Starts
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 13:30
Importance: Medium
Previous: 1615K; 3.9%
Forecast: 1610K; -0.9%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

Oct, 19 15:30
Leading Index (Conference Board)
Leading Index (Conference Board)
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 15:30
Importance: Low
Previous: 117.3; 0.3%
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Aug

The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.

The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.

Oct, 19 19:00
Federal Budget Balance
Federal Budget Balance
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 19:00
Importance: Low
Previous: -170.6
Forecast: -61.0
Actual: -
Period: Sep

This is a report which measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

Oct, 19 19:50
★★
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Country:
Date: Oct, 19 19:50
Importance: Medium
Previous: -
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: -
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
Oct, 20 00:30
MI Leading Index
MI Leading Index
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 00:30
Importance: Low
Previous: -0.3%
Forecast: -
Actual: -
Period: Sep

A leading indicator for Australian economic activity calculated by Melbourne Institute.

Oct, 20 00:50
Trade Balance
Trade Balance
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 00:50
Importance: Low
Previous: -271.8bln; -635.4bln
Forecast: -530.0bln; -519.2bln
Actual: -
Period: Sep

The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.

A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.

Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.

The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.

Oct, 20 07:00
★★★
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 07:00
Importance: High
Previous: 0.7% m/m; 3.2% y/y
Forecast: 0.4%; 3.2%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Oct, 20 07:00
★★
Consumer Price Index-Core
Consumer Price Index-Core
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 07:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: 3.1%
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

Oct, 20 07:00
★★
Retail price index
Retail price index
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 07:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.6% m/m; 4.8% y/y
Forecast: 0.2%; 4.7%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

In the United Kingdom, the Retail Prices Index or Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics.

Oct, 20 07:00
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PPI Input
PPI Input
Country:
Date: Oct, 20 07:00
Importance: Medium
Previous: 0.4% m/m; 11.0% y/y
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: -
Period: Sep

A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.

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